Assessing Subnational Climate Policy Alignment in Nigeria: Evidence from Jigawa State and a Comparative Analysis with Katsina State

Abstract

Jigawa State published its first dedicated Climate Change Policy (JSCCP) in January 2026, presenting it as aligned with Nigeria’s National Climate Change Policy (NCCP, 2021–2030) and Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), transmitted to the UNFCCC in September 2025. This study evaluates that claim through a criterion-based comparative document analysis. The vertical comparison assesses JSCCP against the NCCP and NDC 3.0, while the horizontal comparison examines the Katsina State Green Growth Agenda (KAGGA), drawing on contemporaneous secondary evidence because its primary text was not publicly accessible. Using a three-category alignment framework full, partial, and misalignment—the analysis finds that JSCCP’s institutional architecture is fully aligned with the national model established under the Climate Change Act, 2021. Its adaptation and agriculture provisions are partially aligned, while its most quantifiable mitigation commitment renewable energy is misaligned, as it reproduces targets from Nigeria’s 2021 Updated NDC rather than the updated figures in NDC 3.0. The Katsina comparison suggests that its governance model, earmarked financing mechanism, and externally validated ranking provide more visible accountability mechanisms than JSCCP currently offers, although causal links between the ranking and reported funding increases cannot be established. Both policies share a structural challenge identified in NDC 3.0: financing ambitions exceed documented subnational institutional capacity, alongside the absence of operational subnational greenhouse gas inventories and public MRV platforms. The study recommends reconciling JSCCP targets with NDC 3.0, strengthening subnational MRV capacity, and institutionalising independent climate-governance assessment.