Assessment of Rainfall Trends, Variability, and Distribution under Climate Change in Southern Plateau State, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1014-5481Keywords:
Climate change, Rainfall variability, Seasonal rainfall pattern, Spatial variability, Temporal trend analysisAbstract
The effect of climate change on rainfall trends, variability, and distribution, which in turn affects agricultural activities and food security, is alarming. This study attempts to assess the rainfall trends, variability, and distribution in Southern Plateau State, Nigeria. The study utilized 42 years of monthly and annual rainfall data (1981-2022) derived through the NASA POWER archive. Seasonal patterns were analyzed using monthly rainfall, whereas annual totals were utilized to analyze long-term trends and spatial variability of rainfall in the area. Inferential statistics, including the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator, were used in conjunction with descriptive statistics. The findings show that the rainfall regime is unimodal with a start in April-May, a peak in July-August, and cessation in September-October, with a short growing season of 5-7 months. The trend analysis reveals that the rainfall has steadily decreased in all LGAs, with the Sen’s slope values varying between -7.6 mm/year and -11.9 mm/year. The MK test reveals statistically significant decreasing trends (p < 0.05) in all locations, which depict an upsurge in dryness and variability. Spatial analysis reveals that the distribution of rainfall is uneven, with the highest amounts in Langtang South and Qua’an Pan and the lowest values in Wase. These findings indicate growing climate instability, which is very problematic for rain-fed agriculture in the study area.
References
Abaje, I.B. (2023). Geo-Statistical Analysis of Meteorological Drought and Recurrence Intervals in the Context of Climate Change Over Extreme Northeastern Region of Nigeria. Tanzania Journal of Science, 49(1), pp.152 166.
Abaje, I.B., Sawa, B.A., Iguisi, E.O. and Ibrahim, A.A. (2016). Impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies in rural communities of Kaduna State, Nigeria. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, 9 (1), 97 – 108.
Agarwal, S., Suchithra, A. S., & Singh, S. P. (2021). Analysis and interpretation of rainfall trend using Mann-Kendall’s and Sen’s slope method. Indian Journal of Ecology, 48(2), 453–457.
Al-Adwan, A. S., Nofal, M., Akram, H., Albelbisi, N. A. & Al-Okaily, M. (2022). Towards a sustainable adoption of E-Learning systems: the role of self-directed learning. Journal of Information Technology Education: Research 14 (17), 10630.
Animashaun, I.M., Oguntunde, P.G., Akinwumiju, A., & Olubanjo, O. (2020). Rainfall analysis over the Niger central hydrological area, Nigeria: variability, trend, and change point detection. Science of Africa 8:e00419.
Ati, O.F., Aremu, K., Olatunde, A.F., Abaje, I.B. & Oladipo, E.O. (2022). Meteorological drought and temperature in Sudano-Sahelian region of Nigeria under increasing global warming. In: The nature, causes, effects and mitigation of climate change on the environment, p. 201.
Awode, A. E., Adewumi, J. R., Obiora-Okeke, O., & Komolafe, A. A. (2025). Analysis of rainfall variability and extreme events in South-Western Nigeria: Implications for water resource management and climate resilience. Bulletin of the National Research Centre, 49, 31.
Ayanlade, A., Radeny, M., Morton, J., & Muchaba, T. (2018). Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro climatic zones: an assessment of climate change challenges in Africa. Sci Total Environ 630:728–737.
Baig, M. R. I., Naikoo, M. W., Ansari, A. H., Ahmad, S. & Rahman, A. (2021). Spatio-temporal analysis of precipitation pattern and trend using standardized precipitation index and Mann–Kendall test in coastal Andhra Pradesh. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 8, 2733–2752.
Balogun, I.I., Sojobi, A., Oyedepo, B.O. (2016). Assessment of rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting potential, and storage requirements in Odeda local government area of Ogun state in South western Nigeria. Cogent Environ Sci 2:1138597.
Binbol, N.L., Oche, C.Y., Eziashi, A.C., and Choji, V.D. (2016). Assessment of hydrological drought characteristics on the Jos, Plateau, Nigeria. Jos Plateau J. Environ. Sustainable Dev., 1: 12-17.
Binbol, N.L., Labiru, M.A., Maton, S.M., Sadiku, Y., & Yaroson, A.Y. (2020). A Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Characteristics on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria. J. Met & Clim. Sci. 18(1): 7-13
Crétat, J., Harrison, S.P., Braconnot, P., d’Agostino ,R., Jungclaus, J., Lohmann, G., Shi, X., & Marti, O. (2024). Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual to decadal variability for the last 6000 years. Clim Dyn 62(3):2301–2316
Danbauchi, E. S. (2023). Climate is changing; Temperature and rainfall pattern (variability) in Jos-Metropolis, Plateau State, Nigeria. IIARD International Journal of Geography & Environmental Management (IJGEM), 9(2), 10.
Fredricks, K. C., & Goyol, S. S. (2025). Exploring the relationship between annual rainfall variability and selected urban crop output in Jos Metropolis. The Journal of Resilient Urbanism and Sustainable Design, 14, X.
Ezenwaji, E. E., Nzoiwu, C. P., & Chima, G. N. (2020). Analysis of precipitation concentration index (PCI) for Awka urban area, Nigeria. HYDROLOGY: CURRENT RESEARCH, 11(3), 100041.
Gadedjisso-Tossou, A., Adjegan, K. I. & Kablan, A. K. M. (2021). Rainfall and temperature trend analysis by Mann–Kendall test and significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo. Science 3 (1), 17.
Jiqin, H., Gelata, F. T., & Gemeda, S. C. (2023). Application of MK trend and test of Sen’s slope estimator to measure impact of climate change on the adoption of conservation agriculture in Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(3), 977.
Kazemzadeh, M., Hashemi, H., Jamali, S., Uvo, C.B., Berndtsson, R. & Huffman, G.J. (2021). Linear and nonlinear trend analyses in global satellite-based precipitation, 1998−2017.
Kinda, S., & Badolo, F. (2019). Does rainfall variability matter for food security in developing countries? Cogent Econ Finance 7:1640098. [21]
Magaji, J., Abaje, I. B., & Ati, O. F. (2025). Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall distribution in the northern part of Katsina State, Nigeria. Science World Journal, 20(1).
Matawalli, B.M. (2021). A spatio-temporal trend analysis of rainfall and its implications for agricultural production in the Sudano-Sahelian region of Nigeria. Direct Research Journal of Agriculture and Food Science, 9, pp.42-53. ISSN 2354-4147.
Nnodu, I. D., & Ibrahim, M. J. (2024). Spatiotemporal variations of rainfall over Nigeria from 1971 to 2020. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 8(7), 1460–1472.
Odekunle, T. O. (2004). Rainfall and the length of the growing season in Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology, 24(4), 467–479.
Ogunrinde, A.T., Oguntunde, P.G., Akinwumiju, A., & Fasinmirin, J. (2020). Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the characteristics of drought in the Sahel Region of Nigeria: 1971–2060. African Geograph Rev 40:192–210.
Oluwadare, A. O., & Oluwadare, E. J. (2025). Understanding climate variability and rainfall distribution patterns in Osogbo, Southwestern Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Physics, 34(2), 177–185.
Ovalle-Rivera, O., Läderach, P., Bunn, C., Obersteiner, M. & Schroth, G. (2015). Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change. PLoS ONE 10(4), e0124155.
Ray, S., Das, S. S., Mishra, P. & Al Khatib, A. M. G. (2021). Time series SARIMA modelling and forecasting of monthly rainfall and temperature in the south Asian countries. Earth Systems and Environment 5, 531–546.
Skendžić, S., Zovko, M., Živković, I., Lešić, V. & Lemić, D. (2021). The impact of climate change on agricultural insect pests. Insects 12(5), 440.
[30] Sultan, B. & Gaetani, M. (2016). Agriculture in West Africa in the twenty-first century: Climate change and impacts scenarios, and potential for adaptation. Front. Plant Sci. 7, 1262.
Tahroudi, M. N. (2025). Comprehensive global assessment of precipitation trend and pattern variability considering their distribution dynamics. Scientific Reports, 15, 22458.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J. (2014). Global warming and changes in drought. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 17–22.
Udo-Inyang, U.C. and Edem, I.D. (2012). Analysis of rainfall trends in Akwa Ibom state, Nigeria. J. Environ. Earth Sci., 2: 60-70.
Yaouba, B., & Dieudonné, B. (2022). A review of climate change and agro-industrial development in Cameroon. Environmental Protection Research 2 (1), 1–46.
Zitta, W. S., & Madaki, D. H. (2020). Climate Change, Rainfall Trends and Variability in Jos Plateau. Journal of Applied Sciences, 20 (2): 76-82, ISSN 1812-5654.
Zhang, Q., Berntell, E., Li, Q., Ljungqvist, F.C. (2021). Understanding the variability of the rainfall dipole in West Africa using the EC Earth last millennium simulation. Clim Dyn 57(1):93–107.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Peter Damulak Dakung, Samson Akintunde Ogunyemi, Andrew, Ocholi, Mashat, Bitrus, Abraham, Dakagan, Fagbohun, Dabis, Adewoyin, Daramola
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
