ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1005-4559Keywords:
Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, Temperature, Drought, Economic GrowthAbstract
This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria from 2010 to 2023, and its subsequent implications for national economic growth. Using secondary annual data from NiMet, the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Bank of Nigeria and FAO, the analysis combines descriptive time-series methods, Pearson correlation, multiple regression, unit-root testing (ADF), Johansen cointegration and an error-correction model (ECM). Results show that rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme-weather events have a statistically significant negative effect on agricultural productivity, while well-distributed rainfall supports output. Agricultural productivity, in turn, exhibits a strong and positive association with real GDP growth. Cointegration tests indicate stable long-run relationships among climate variables, productivity and economic growth, and the ECM reveals rapid adjustment toward equilibrium following shocks (error-correction coefficient ). These findings highlight that climate-driven losses in agricultural output materially constrain Nigeria’s economic performance. The study recommends mainstreaming climate adaptation into agricultural and macroeconomic planning, expanding climate-smart farming and irrigation investments, and strengthening extension and early-warning systems to safeguard food security and economic resilience.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Segun Peter Alade, lkama Pius Wazahada, Chundung David
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