ICT AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR PERFORMANCE: INSIGHTS FROM APPLICATION OF ARDL BOUNDS TEST APPROACH WITH A STRUCTURAL BREAK TO NIGERIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1002-4466Keywords:
ARDL Bounds Test, Cointegration, Error Correction Model, ICT, Manufacturing Sector Performance, NigeriaAbstract
This study investigates the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on Nigeria’s manufacturing sector using an annual time series dataset for the period 1981-2021. This is necessitated by the fact that although manufacturing sector plays a catalytic role in economic transformation and industrialization, but in Nigeria, the sector has continued to experience a decline output, prompting a search for solutions. To achieve its objective, the study employs both descriptive and inferential methods of data analyses. For the inferential analysis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test with a structural break examines the long-run and short-run effects of ICT on manufacturing performance, controlling for human capital, foreign direct investment (FDI), and capacity utilization. The findings reveal a significant long-run positive impact of ICT and FDI, even after accounting for a structural break in 1993. In the short run, human capital enhances manufacturing output, while FDI has a negative effect in the short-run. These results underscore the importance of strengthening ICT infrastructure, attracting FDI, and enhancing human capital to drive manufacturing growth. Thus, policymakers should foster a conducive environment for digital adoption and foreign investment while prioritizing skills development to maximize the sector’s potential.
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