TRENDS, PATTERNS, AND DETERMINANTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN NORTH-WEST NIGERIA: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS (2016–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2025-0912-4342Keywords:
Road Traffic Accidents, North-West Nigeria, Statistical Analysis, Accident Severity, Public HealthAbstract
Road traffic accidents (RTAs) represent a critical public health challenge in Nigeria, with the North-West region experiencing a disproportionate burden due to its role as a major commercial corridor. This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of RTA trends, patterns, and severity across the seven states of North-West Nigeria from 2016 to 2024. Methods utilizing official data from the Federal Road Safety Corps, we employed descriptive statistics, two-factor analysis of variance, and post-hoc tests to analyze accident frequency, injuries, fatalities, and people involved. We computed casualty severity indices and fatality rates to assess accident severity across states. Results from the analysis revealed a dramatic surge in RTAs in 2024, with Kaduna State bearing the highest burden in absolute terms (7,804 crashes, 4,348 deaths). However, Katsina and Zamfara recorded the highest fatality rates (0.64), indicating more deadly crashes. A significant interaction effect (p<0.001) between states and crash metrics confirmed distinct state-specific accident profiles. The casualty severity index exceeded 50% across all states, peaking in Sokoto at 68%. Conclusion North-West Nigeria faces an escalating RTA crisis with substantial variations in accident patterns across states. The findings underscore the necessity for targeted, state-specific interventions rather than uniform regional approaches. Recommendations include enhanced data collection, infrastructure improvements, and coordinated multi-agency responses to address this public health emergency.
References
Govender, I. P., & Masanabo, D. K. (2025). Road traffic accidents, still a challenge in South Africa. South African Family Practice, 67(1), 6104.
Ibrahim, N. A., & Onyeka, T. (2017). The public health threat of road traffic accidents in Nigeria. Journal of Community Health, 42(3), 514–516.
Ibrahim, A., Abubakar, S., & Suleiman, M. A. (2020). Trends and patterns of road traffic accidents in Northwestern Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Technological Research, 15(2), 1–8.
Inah, O. I., Ofem, M. I., Abam, F. I., Effiom, S. O., & Jimmy, O. O. (2025). Trend and causative factors of road traffic crashes in Nigeria: A Six Sigma (DMAIC) approach. Journal of Road Safety, 36(1), 53–65.
Bello, S., & Umar, M. (2021). Predictive analysis of road traffic accidents in Nigeria using machine learning algorithms. Nigerian Journal of Technology, 40(4), 756–765. https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v40i4.22
Salihu, A. S., Ojo, O. E., & Adekunle, M. A. (2022). An assessment of causative factors of road traffic accidents in Nigeria: A systematic review. Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, 14(6), 1005–1024. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2021.1930842
Okoro, C., Yusuf, M., & Lawal, U. (2024). Security challenges and public health outcomes: A case study of road travel in Northern Nigeria. Sokoto State University Press.
Oyeka, I. C. A., & Okeh, U. M. (2014). Two factor analysis of variance and dummy variable multiple regression models. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research: F (Mathematics and Decision Sciences), 14(6), 41–55.
World Health Organization. (2023). Global status report on road safety 2023. World Health Organization.
Wole, M., Musa, H. D., Shareefdeen, A. O., Lanke, O., & Sikiru, B. (2024). The ember months: A dark time for road safety in Nigeria? Journal of Road Safety, 35(3), 44–52.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Tanko N. A., Onyishi I. L, Musa S. A.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
