CONVENTIONAL MODELLING APPROACH TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF COVID-19

  • S Bashir
  • I. Z. Shehu
  • N. Chinenye
Keywords: COVID-19, Mathematical Modelling, Transmission Dynamics, infectious disease, Predict, Conventional

Abstract

The study examined transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with conventional modelling approach. We developed a mathematical model for COVID-19 pandemic as SEQIR where I, the infected compartment is partitioned in to  and for reported and unreported group of infected individuals. Basic reproduction number has been obtained and the stability analysis was carried out. The results revealed that the disease may die out in time

References

Benyah, F. (2008). Introduction to epidemiological modelling 10th regional college on modelling, simulation and optimization. University of cape coast, Ghana.
Dirissche, P., Watmough, J. (2005) Preprint submitted to Elsevier Science (Math.Biosci) 7th March, 2005.

Ivorra B., Ferrández M. R., Vela-Pérez M. and Ramos A. M. (2020) Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) considering its particular characteristics. The case of China. MOMAT Research Group.

Jia L., Li K., Jiang Y., Guo X. and zhao T. (2020) Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Read J. M., Bridgen J. R. E., Cummings D. A. T., Ho A., and Jewell C. P. (2020) Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions, medRxiv.

Ssematimba, A., Mugisha, J. Y. Luboobi, L.S. (2005). Mathematical models for dynamics of Tuberculosis in density -dependent populations. The case of internally displaced Peoples’ Camps (IDPCs) in Uganda. Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 1 (3): 217-224.

Kim Soyoung, Yae-Jean Kim, Kyong Ran Peck, Eunok Jung (2020) School Opening Delay Effect on Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Korea: Based on Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Study. Journal of Korean Medical Science. 35(13). Pp 1-9

Tang B., Wang X., Li Q., Bragazzi N. L., Tang S., and Xiao Y. (2020) Estimation of the transmission risk of 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions, J.Clin.Med.,9, Pp.462.

WHO statement regarding cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. 2020. Availablefrom:https://www.who.int/china/news/detail/09-01-2020-\who-statement-regarding cluster-of-pneumonia-cases-in-wuhan-china.

Wu J. T., Leung K., and Leung G. M.,(2020) Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating inWuhan,China: a modeling study. Lancet, 395, 689–697.

Cakir Z. and Hasan B. S. (2020) A Mathematical Modelling Approach in the Spread of the Novel 2019 Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic. Electronic Journal of General Medicine. 17(4). Pp 1-3
Published
2021-07-13
How to Cite
Bashir, S., Shehu, I. Z., & Chinenye, N. (2021). CONVENTIONAL MODELLING APPROACH TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF COVID-19. FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES, 5(2), 470 - 476. https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2021-0502-651