Modelling Childhood Mortality Patterns in Nigeria: Insights from 2024 National Survey Data

Abstract

Childhood mortality remains a major public health concern in Nigeria, with persistent regional disparities and uneven progress in child survival outcomes. This study examines the determinants and spatial distribution of childhood mortality using data from the 2024 national demographic survey. A Negative-Binomial Zero-inflated geo-additive regression modelling approach was applied to account for overdispersion, excess zero counts, nonlinear relationships, and spatial dependence in child death outcomes. Vital socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare-related predictors were included in the analysis. The results show significantly higher childhood mortality risk in the North-West and North-East, as well as in selected southern states, compared with the North-Central region. Also, higher maternal education, richer household, health insurance enrolment, modern transportation to health facilities, and urban place of residence are associated with increased child survival at the 5% significance level. Moreover, the age of the mother, age at first birth, and parity show nonlinear effects, suggesting complex reproductive health patterns. Spatial clustering of mortality is evident, especially in northern states. These findings suggest that reducing childhood mortality in Nigeria requires coordinated efforts that address socioeconomic inequalities, improve access to quality healthcare, and target high-risk regions. Policies promoting female education, expanded health insurance coverage, and improved healthcare infrastructure are recommended.