SPATIAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF THIRD-PARTY INTERFERENCE ON PETROLEUM PIPELINES IN THE NIGER DELTA: A GIS-BASED SAFETY MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1004-4824Keywords:
Spatial Risk assessment, Third-party interference, Petroleum pipeline, GIS-based safety management, Niger DeltaAbstract
Third-party interference (TPI) is a threat to petroleum pipeline integrity in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, yet existing protection approaches are largely reactive and lack spatial predictive capability. This study develops a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework, integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process, to assess and map the spatial variability of TPI risk along selected pipeline corridors. The analysis incorporates environmental, infrastructural, and socioeconomic factors, including land-use, population density, proximity to roads and waterways, and terrain characteristics. Results indicate that 22% of the pipeline corridor falls within high to very high-risk categories, with risk hotspots concentrated in areas characterized by high accessibility and dense human activity. Accessibility-related variables is 55% to the composite risk index, highlighting their dominant influence. Socioeconomic factors such as poverty and unemployment show spatial association with high-risk zones, their role appears complementary rather than primary. The findings demonstrate the utility of geospatial modelling in identifying spatial patterns of vulnerability and supporting targeted intervention strategies. The study provides a scalable decision-support tool for prioritizing surveillance, infrastructure protection, and community-based interventions. The study recommend the use of automated sensors, remote sensing, and routine field inspections, for pipeline segments classified as high and extremely high risk in the Spatial Risk Index. This study contributes to the growing application of GIS-MCDA approaches in infrastructure risk assessment and offers a foundation for more predictive and evidence-based pipeline security management in complex socio-environmental settings. The study concluded that TPI risk is spatially heterogeneous and strongly influenced by accessibility and human activity in the study area.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Saidu Hussaini, Ahmad Muhammad Aliyu, Musa Isa Muhammad, Zanuwa Mu’azu Audu
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