NEXUS BETWEEN CLIMATIC ELEMENTS AND DISEASES: AN INSIGHT INTO TEMPORAL PATTERN OF MEASLES INCIDENCE IN BADE LGA, YOBE STATE, NIGERIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2026-1004-4589Keywords:
Climate Variability, Measles, Seasonality, Disease Ecology, Sahel, Public HealthAbstract
Measles incidence have been a recurrent phenomenon and had posed huge challenge to public health in developing countries, especially the Sahel. This study analyzes the nexus between weather elements and measles incidence in Bade Local Government Area (LGA), Yobe State, Nigeria from 2013 to 2022. Daily meteorological data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and measles cases from Bade LGA Health Department were subjected to stepwise multiple regression, Pearson correlations, and seasonal averaging. Models explained 8–65.3% of measles variance (mean R² = 37.5%), with significant positive associations for humidity (r up to 0.717, p < 0.001) and wind speed (r up to 0.599, p < 0.001). Peaks occurred in dry-hot months (March–July), coinciding with low rainfall and high temperatures. Grounded in disease ecology, findings reveal climate as a key driver via temperature, relative humidity and aerosol stability. The study recommends integrating meteorological data in early warning systems and synchronizes vaccinations with dry seasons by public health agencies. This evidence aids climate-adaptive strategies in Sahelian Nigeria.
References
Abdullahi, A. H., Ahmed, A., Hassan, A. W., Umar, J. H., Abdullahi, R., & Ityonum, B. I. (2024). Public perceptions of climate variability and its impact on measles outbreak in Kano State, Nigeria. UMYU Scientifica, 3(4), 321–329. https://doi.org/10.56919/usci.2434.026
Altizer, S., Ostfeld, R. S., Johnson, P. T. J., Kutz, S., & Harvell, C. D. (2013). Climate change and infectious diseases: From evidence to a predictive framework. Science, 341(6145), 514– 519. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239401
Ayoade, J.O. (2004). Introduction to climatology for the tropics. Spectrum Books Limited. Ibadan
Dahiru, S., Abaje, I. B., & Ati, O. F. (2025). Relationship between climatic parameters and the occurrence of malaria and measles in Urban Katsina, Katsina State, Nigeria. Gombe Journal of Administration and Management (GJAM), 8(4B), 260–270.
Dahiru, S., Abaje, I. B., & Ati, O. F. (2025). Relationship between climatic parameters and the occurrence of malaria and measles in Urban Katsina, Katsina State, Nigeria. Gombe Journal of Administration and Management, 8(4B), 260–270.
Hilbe, J.M. (2011). Negative binormal regression (2nd ed). Cambridge University press. United Kingdom.
Ibrahim, A and Bulama, L. (2023). Weathering malaria: quantitative analysis of climatic factors and disease pattern in Bade LGA, Yobe State, Nigeria. Fuga Journal of Management and Social Science. Vol (1), 1 268-276
Jajere, A.A., Jajere, A.AI and Adamu, A.B. (2022). Geographical description of Kumadugu- Yobe River Basin of West Africa. Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International. 26(3): 1-13
Jia, Y., Xu, Q., Zhu, Y., Li, C., Qi, C., She, K., Liu, T., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Estimation of the relationship between meteorological factors and measles using spatiotemporal Bayesian model in Shandong Province, China. BMC Public Health, 23, 1422.
Kama, H. (2025). Influence of climatic elements on the incidence of malaria, measles, meningitis, and pneumonia in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). African Journal of Geographical Sciences, 6(1), 79–88.
Kutner, M.H., Nachsheim, C.J., Neter, J. and Li, W. (2005). Applied linear statistical models (5th ed). McGraw-Hill, New York.
Luo, Z., Shen, Y., Xu, X., Li, J., & Wang, X. (2025). Spatial–temporal pattern and drivers associated with measles resurgence from 2018 to 2023: A global perspective from 192 countries. BMJ Public Health, 3(1), e001912.
Messina, J.P. (2011). Population, behavioural and environmental drivers of Malaria prevalence in the Democratic Republic of Conco. Malaria Journal, 10. 161.
National Population Commission (NPC). (2006). Population and housing census of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Abuja: NPC.
Nicholson, S. E. (2013). The West African Sahel: A review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability. ISRN Meteorology, 2013, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/453521
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet). (2020). 2020 Seasonal rainfall prediction (SRP) report. Abuja, Nigeria: Nigerian Meteorological Agency
Ojasanya, R. A., Awosile, B. B., Adeyemo, P., Jarra, E., & Berke, O. (2025). Time series analysis of measles incidence in Nigeria using surveillance data from 2011 to 2022. McGill Journal of Global Health, 14(1), 23–27.
Ojasanya, R. A., Awosile, B. B., Adeyemo, P., Jarra, E., & Berke, O. (2025). Time series analysis of measles incidence in Nigeria using surveillance data from 2011 to 2022. McGill Journal of Global Health, 14(1), 23–27.
Omonijo, A.G., Matzarakis, A., Oguntoke, O. and Adeofun, C.O. (2012) Effects of thermal and seasonal occurrence of measles in Ondo State, Nigeria. Int J Biometeology. 56: 873-885
Onyiriuka, A.N. (2011). Clinical profile of children presenting with measles in a Nigerian secondary health-care institution. Journal of Infectious Diseases and Immunity. 3(6): 112- 116
Ostfeld, R. S., Glass, G. E., & Keesing, F. (2005). Spatial epidemiology: An emerging (or re- emerging) discipline. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 20(6), 328–336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2005.03.009
Pascual, M., Bouma, M. J., & Dobson, A. P. (2002). Cholera and climate: Revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes and Infection, 4(2), 237–245. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1286-4579(01)01533-7
Pitzer, V.E. Viboud, C., Alonso, W. J., Wilcox, T., Metcalt, C.J.E., and Grenfell, B.T. (2015). Environmental drivers of the spatio-temporal dynamic of respiratory syncytial virus in United State. PLos Pathogens 11 (1), e1004591 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppt.1004591
Saleh, J. E. A. (2016). Trends of measles in Nigeria: A systematic review. Sahel Medical Journal: 19 (1), 5-11. DOI 10.4103/1118-8561.181887
Shorunke, F. O., Adeola-Musa, O., Usman, A., et al. (2019). Descriptive epidemiology of measles surveillance data, Osun State, Nigeria, 2016–2018. BMC Public Health, 19, 1636.
World Health Organization. (2025, November 28). Measles fact sheet. WHO. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/measles
Yang, Q., Dong, Z., Fu, C., Hu, W., Wang, M. and Wang, N., (2014) The effects of weather conditions on measles incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China. Human vaccine and immunotherapeutic 10:4, 1104-1110
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Adamu Ibrahim, Yunusa Hasan, Lawan Bulama, Aminu Muhamad Gero, Haruna Gambo Usur, Buhari Mukhtar Gatawa
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
