MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF RABIES TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS WITH VACCINATION

Authors

  • M. Isiyaku
    Modibbo Adama University
  • Musa Abdullahi
    Modibbo Adama University, Yola
  • A. Husseini
    Nigerian Army University, Biu
  • I. M. Song
    Federal College of Education, Yola
  • S. H. Bade
    Federal College of Education, Yola
  • A. Abubakar
    Adamawa State Polytechnic, Yola
  • Umar Gidado
    Government Day Senior Secondary School Hammawa Toungo, Yola

Keywords:

Rabies, Reproduction Number, Vaccination, Stability, Sensitivity

Abstract

Rabies remains a fatal zoonotic disease that poses a significant public health challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic compartmental model based on ordinary differential equations to investigate the transmission dynamics of rabies between humans and dogs.  Basic properties of the model such as positivity, boundedness, and the existence of equilibria are established, and the model is well-posed mathematically and biologically. The basic reproduction number, ​, is derived using the next-generation matrix method, and stability analysis reveals that the rabies-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable when . The model exhibits a unique endemic equilibrium, when , which is also globally stable whenever . Sensitivity analysis using both normalized forward sensitivity indices and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) identifies the most influential parameters on ​. Numerical simulations demonstrate that vaccination, particularly in the dog population is the most effective control strategy in reducing the spread of rabies. The results emphasize the importance of prioritizing control interventions in the dog population to effectively manage and reduce the burden of rabies.

Dimensions

Abdullahi, M., Samuel, M., Hussein, A., & Muhammad, I. S. (2024). Dynamics of rabies transmission model in human and dog populations with time delay. International Journal of Development Mathematics, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.62054/ijdm/0101.10

Abdulmajid, S., & Hassan, A. S. (2021). Analysis of time delayed rabies model in human and dog populations with controls. African Mathematic, 32(5–6), 1067–1085.

Abrahamian, F. M., & Rupprecht, C. E. (2022). Rhabdovirus: Rabies. In Viral infections of humans: Epidemiology and control (pp. 1–49). Springer.

Amoako, Y. A., El-Duah, P., Sylverken, A. A., Owusu, M., Yeboah, R., Gorman, R., Adade, T., Bonney, J., Tasiame, W., Nyarko-Jectey, K., et al. (2021). Rabies is still a fatal but neglected disease: A case report. Journal of Medical Case Reports, 15(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13256-021-02821-2.

Bilal, A. (2021). Rabies is a zoonotic disease: A literature review. Occupational Medicine & Health Affairs, 9(2).

Bohrer, G., Shem-Tov, S., Summer, E., Or, K., & Saltz, D. (2002). The effectiveness of various rabies spatial vaccination patterns in a simulated host population with clumped distribution. Ecological Modelling, 152(2–3), 205–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00003-0.

Carroll, M. J., Singer, A., Smith, G. C., Cowan, D. P., & Massei, G. (2010). The use of immunocontraception to improve rabies eradication in urban dog populations. Wildlife Research, 37(8), 676–687.

Childs, J. E., Curns, A. T., Dey, M. E., et al. (2000). Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97(25), 13666–13671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.240326697.

Coyne, M. J., Smith, G., & McAllister, F. E. (1989). A mathematical model for the population biology of rabies in raccoons in the mid-Atlantic states. American Journal of Veterinary Research, 50(12), 2148–2154.

De Benedictis, P., Leopardi, S., Markotter, W., & Velasco-Villa, A. (2022). The importance of accurate host species identification in the framework of rabies surveillance, control and elimination. Viruses, 14(3), 492. https://doi.org/10.3390/v14030492.

Ding, W., Gross, L. J., Langston, K., Lenhart, S., & Real, L. A. (2007). Rabies in raccoons: Optimal control for a discrete time model on a spatial grid. Journal of Biological Dynamics, 1(4), 379–393.

Global Alliance for Rabies Control. (2016). https://rabiesalliance.org/

Hailemichael, D. D., Edessa, G. K., & Koya, P. R. (2022). Effect of vaccination and culling on the dynamics of rabies transmission from stray dogs to domestic dogs. Journal of Applied Mathematics.

Hale, J. (1969). Ordinary differential equations. John Wiley & Sons.

Hampson, K., Dushoff, J., Bingham, J., Brückner, G., Ali, Y. H., & Dobson, A. (2007). Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(18), 7717–7722.

Kumar, A., Bhatt, S., Kumar, A., & Rana, T. (2023). Canine rabies: An epidemiological significance, pathogenesis, diagnosis, prevention and public health issues. Comparative Immunology, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, 92, 101992.

Levin, S. A., Hallam, T. G., & Gross, L. J. (Eds.). (2012). Applied mathematical ecology (Vol. 18, Biomathematics). Springer.

Martcheva, M. (2015). An introduction to mathematical epidemiology (Vol. 61). Springer.

Sambo, M., Cleaveland, S., Ferguson, H., Lembo, T., Simon, C., Urassa, H., & Hampson, K. (2013). The burden of rabies in Tanzania and its impact on local communities. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7(11), e2510.

Slathia, P., Abrol, R., Sharma, S., & Sharma, S. (2023). Rabies: A review on clinical signs, prevention and control. Pharma Innovation Journal, 12(5), 1675–1676.

Tian, H., Feng, Y., Vrancken, B., Cazelles, B., Tan, H., Gill, M. S., Yang, Q., Li, Y., Yang, W., Zhang, Y., et al. (2018). Transmission dynamics of re-emerging rabies in domestic dogs of rural China. PLoS Pathogens, 14(12), e1007392.

Wang, X., & Lou, J. (2008). Two dynamic models about rabies between dogs and humans. Journal of Biological Systems, 16(4), 519–529.

Yang, W., & Lou, J. (2009). The dynamics of an interactional model of rabies transmitted between humans and dogs. Bollettino della Unione Matematica Italiana, 2(3), 591–605.

Zhang, T., Wang, K., Zhang, X., & Jin, Z. (2015). Modeling and analyzing the transmission dynamics of HBV epidemic in Xinjiang, China. PLoS ONE, 10(9), e138765.

Zinsstag, J., Dürr, S., Penny, M. A., et al. (2009). Transmission dynamics and economics of rabies control in dogs and humans in an African city. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(35), 14996–15001.

Published

26-09-2025

How to Cite

MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF RABIES TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS WITH VACCINATION. (2025). FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES, 9(9), 317-326. https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2025-0909-3733

How to Cite

MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF RABIES TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS WITH VACCINATION. (2025). FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES, 9(9), 317-326. https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2025-0909-3733

Most read articles by the same author(s)