APPLICATION OF GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCMS) TO PREDICT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE VARIABILITIES IN KANO STATE, NIGERIA
Abstract
The study explored present and future climate scenarios of Kano using Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The metrological data from 12 locations were used for calibration of Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). The historical record of 10 years was used for both temperatures and rainfall data which represent a period of 2010 to 2019. The future climate projections were made for 2041 to 2060 centered in the 2050s under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The spatial analysis was conducted using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) tool in an ArcGIS environment. The result shows that the temperature of Kano has increased relative to baseline condition by 1.025oC (2.45%) and 4.6 oC (10.98%) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. However, the annual rainfall was found to decrease from the historical amount by -37.9 mm (5%), and -68.2 mm (9%) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Moreover, the spatial analysis indicated that there was climate variability across the width and breadth of the state. The study concludes that the climate change effect will cause the temperature of Kano to rise considerably in the future with the consequences of decreased rainfall amount. The findings recommend that policymakers should deploy adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse effects that might be experienced.
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