A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GROWTH MODELS ON NIGERIA POPULATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fjs-2023-0706-2215Keywords:
Nigeria, MSE, growth model, population, exponentialAbstract
Growth models have been applied over time to track and forecast changes in variables such as population, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other aspects of numerous fields of study. This research focuses on modelling the growth of Nigeria’s population from the year 1981 to 2021 and determining the best fit model to represent Nigeria’s population growth (male, female and total). Seven growth models were considered in this research which includes: the linear, the exponential (Malthusian), Logistic (Verhulst), Gompertz, Hyperbolic, Brody and the Von Bertalanffy growth models. The criteria used for comparison of best fitted model were the coefficient of determination (R2), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The R2 showed that the exponential, the logistic and the Gompertz growth models were all better fits for Nigeria’s population (male, female and total) having the highest R2 (0.999). Further comparison with the MSE, AIC and BIC revealed that the exponential growth model best represented Nigeria’s population growth (male, female and total) having the least MSE, AIC and BIC. Hence the exponential growth model should be considered by researchers in Nigeria population projection.
References
Abubakar, I. R. (2018). Exploring the determinants of open defecation in Nigeria using demographic and health survey data. Sci Total Environ, 637-638, 1455-1465. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.104
Abubakar, I. R. (2019). Factors influencing household access to drinking water in Nigeria. Utilities Policy, 58, 40-51. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2019.03.005
Addo, M., Boateng, W., & Obiri-Danso, K. (2016). Bacteriological quality and metal levels of boreholes and hand-dug well within the Golden Star Wassa mining areas in Ghana. African Journal of Microbiology Research, 10, 584-590. doi:10.5897/AJMR2016.7925
Adekunle, I. M., Adetunji, M. T., Gbadebo, A. M., & Banjoko, O. P. (2007). Assessment of groundwater quality in a typical rural settlement in southwest Nigeria. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 4(4), 307-318. doi:10.3390/ijerph200704040007
Alexander, P., Bwatanglang, I. B., & Daniel, J. (2019). Assessment of Physicochemical and Bacteriological Parameters of Borehole and Hand Dug Well Water in Michika and Environs, Adamawa State, Nigeria. Microbiology Research Journal International, 28(6), 1-11. doi:10.9734/mrji/2019/v28i630148
Asare-Donkor, N. K., Boadu, T. A., & Adimado, A. A. (2016). Evaluation of groundwater and surface water quality and human risk assessment for trace metals in human settlements around the Bosomtwe Crater Lake in Ghana. Springerplus, 5(1), 1812. doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3462-0
Bamigboye, C. O., Amao, J. A., Ayodele, T., Adebayo, A. S., Ogunleke, J. D., Abass, T., . . . Oyedemi, A. A. (2020). An appraisal of the drinking water quality of groundwater sources in Ogbomoso, Oyo state, Nigeria. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 11, 100453.
Bawaskar, H. S., Bawaskar, P. H., & Bawaskar, P. H. (2010). Chronic renal failure associated with heavy metal contamination of drinking water: a clinical report from a small village in Maharashtra. Clin Toxicol (Phila), 48(7), 768. doi:10.3109/15563650.2010.497763
Bernard, A. (2008). Cadmium & its adverse effects on human health. Indian J Med Res, 128(4), 557-564.
Bhat, S., Mahesh, M., & Ramachandra, T. V. (2019). Assessment of Seasonal Variation in Water Quality and Water Quality Index (WQI) of Hebbal Lake, Bangalore, India. Journal of Ecology and Environment, 37, 309-317.
Dahunsi, S. O., Owamah, H. I., Ayandiran, T. A., & Oranusi, S. U. (2014). Drinking Water Quality and Public Health of Selected Towns in South Western Nigeria. Water Quality, Exposure and Health, 6(3), 143-153. doi:10.1007/s12403-014-0118-6
Das, S., Patnaik, S. C., Sahu, H. K., Chakraborty, A., Sudarshan, M., & Thatoi, H. N. (2013). Heavy metal contamination, physico-chemical and microbial evaluation of water samples collected from chromite mine environment of Sukinda, India. Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China, 23(2), 484-493. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1003-6326(13)62489-9
Egbueri, J. (2018). Assessment of the quality of groundwaters proximal to dumpsites in Awka and Nnewi metropolises: a comparative approach. International Journal of Energy and Water Resources, 2. doi:10.1007/s42108-018-0004-1
Ezemonye, L. I., Adebayo, P. O., Enuneku, A. A., Tongo, I., & Ogbomida, E. (2019). Potential health risk consequences of heavy metal concentrations in surface water, shrimp (Macrobrachium macrobrachion) and fish (Brycinus longipinnis) from Benin River, Nigeria. Toxicol Rep, 6, 1-9. doi:10.1016/j.toxrep.2018.11.010
Gobe, G., & Crane, D. (2010). Mitochondria, reactive oxygen species and cadmium toxicity in the kidney. Toxicol Lett, 198(1), 49-55. doi:10.1016/j.toxlet.2010.04.013
Ibe, F. C., Opara, A. I., & Ibe, B. O. (2020). Application of pollution risk evaluation models in groundwater systems in the vicinity of automobile scrap markets in Owerri municipal and environs, southeastern Nigeria. Scientific African.
McGregor, D., Baan, R., Partensky, C., Rice, J., & Wilbourn, J. (2000). Evaluation of the carcinogenic risks to humans associated with surgical implants and other foreign bodies—a report of an IARC Monographs Programme Meeting. European journal of cancer, 36(3), 307-313.
Oni, A., & Hassan, A. T. (2013). Groundwater Quality in the Vicinity of Aba-Eku Dumpsite, Ibadan, SW Nigeria: A Detailed Report. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, 6. doi:10.4314/ejesm.v6i6.2
Owamah, H. I. (2020). A comprehensive assessment of groundwater quality for drinking purpose in a Nigerian rural Niger delta community. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 10, 100286. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2019.100286
Oyelami, A., Aladejana, J. A., & Agbede, O. O. (2013). Assessment of the Impact of Open Waste Dumpsites on Groundwater Quality: A Case Study of the Onibu-Eja Dumpsite, Southwestern Nigeria. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 7, 648-651.
Prakash, K. L., & Somashekar, R. K. (2006). Groundwater quality--assessment on Anekal Taluk, Bangalore Urban district, India. J Environ Biol, 27(4), 633-637.
Purushotham, D., Rashid, M., Lone, M. A., Rao, A. N., Ahmed, S., Nagaiah, E., & Dar, F. A. (2013). Environmental impact assessment of air and heavy metal concentration in groundwater of Maheshwaram watershed, ranga reddy district, Andhra Pradesh. Journal of the Geological Society of India, 81(3), 385-396. doi:10.1007/s12594-013-0049-z
Rezaei, A., Hassani, H., Tziritis, E., Fard Mousavi, S., & Jabbari, N. (2020). Hydrochemical characterization and evaluation of groundwater quality in Dalgan basin, SE Iran. 100353. doi:10.1016/j.gsd.2020.100353
Rice, E. W., Bridgewater, L., Association, A. P. H., Association, A. W. W., & Federation, W. E. (2012). Standard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater: American Public Health Association.
Singh, S., & Hussian, A. (2016). Water quality index development for groundwater quality assessment of Greater Noida sub-basin, Uttar Pradesh, India. Cogent Engineering, 3(1), 1177155. doi:10.1080/23311916.2016.1177155
Sojobi, A. O. (2016). Evaluation of groundwater quality in a rural community in North Central of Nigeria. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 188(3), 192. doi:10.1007/s10661-016-5149-y
Tirkey, P., Bhattacharya, T., Chakraborty, S., & Baraik, S. (2017). Assessment of Groundwater Quality and Associated Health Risks: A case study of Ranchi city, Jharkhand, India. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 5. doi:10.1016/j.gsd.2017.05.002
Vetrimurugan, E., Karthikeyan, B., & Lakshmanan, E. (2017). Human Exposure Risk Assessment Due to Heavy Metals in Groundwater by Pollution Index and Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Case Study from South Africa. Water, 9, 234. doi:10.3390/w9040234
World Health, O. (2012). Rapid assessment of drinking-water quality: a handbook for implementation. Geneva: World Health Organization.
World Health, O., & United Nations Children's, F. (2015). Progress on sanitation and drinking water – 2015 update and MDG assessment. Geneva: World Health Organization.
Zacchaeus, O. O., Adeyemi, M. B., Azeem Adedeji, A., Adegoke, K. A., Anumah, A. O., Taiwo, A. M., & Ganiyu, S. A. (2020). Effects of industrialization on groundwater quality in Shagamu and Ota industrial areas of Ogun state, Nigeria. Heliyon, 6(7), e04353. doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04353
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
FUDMA Journal of Sciences
