ON THE PERFORMANCE OF SARIMA AND SARIMAX MODEL IN FORECASTING MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL IN KOGI STATE, NIGERIA
Keywords:
SARIMA, SARIMAX, exogenous, ACF, PACF, Rainfall, Temperature, HumidityAbstract
Forecasting monthly rainfall is very important in Kogi state for better approach to flood management and also plays a pivotal role in agriculture which remains a significant factor in Nigeria’s economy. Advanced time series univariate models such as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models are usually employed in modelling and forecasting rainfall in Nigeria due to their non-linear pattern and spatiotemporal variation. Few studies have attempted to investigate the influence of other climatic factors in modelling and prediction of rainfall pattern. This study examines the performance of a univariate seasonal ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA which uses monthly temperature and relative humidity as exogenous factors otherwise known as SARIMAX model in forecasting monthly average rainfall in Lokoja, the capital of Kogi state. The study uses monthly data on rainfall, temperature and relative humidity spanning from 2010 to 2022 obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency NiMet, Lokoja station. The series were appropriately differenced to attain stationarity. The plots of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) were used to select some tentative models whose parameters would be estimated. The most suitable SARIMA model [SARIMA was chosen based on maximum Coefficient of Determination , and the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC). However, SARIMAX model outperformed SARIMA model based on the criteria earlier highlighted. SARIMAX model was therefore recommended for modelling and forecasting monthly average rainfall in Kogi state.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
FUDMA Journal of Sciences
How to Cite
Most read articles by the same author(s)
- A. Ibrahim, U. M. Sani, V. O. Olokojo, FORECASTING CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND EXCHANGE RATE USING ARIMA MODELS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 6 No. 6 (2022): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 6 No. 6
- I. Lawan, J. A. Falola, A. Ibrahim, A. Mustapha, SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CRASHES ALONG KANO-MAIDUGURI ROAD , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 2 No. 4 (2018): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 2 No. 4
- MUAZU DANTALA ZAKARI, N. N Sani, A. A. Sabo, N. J. Shanono, D. Mohammed, S. E. Ahmadu, A. Ibrahim, N. M. Nasidi, EFFECT OF MILLET CHAFF AS ORGANIC AMENDMENT ON RICE YIELD IN SODIC SOIL - A CASE STUDY OF THOMAS IRRIGATION SCHEME IN KANO, NIGERIA , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 6 No. 1 (2022): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 6 No. 1
- A. Ibrahim, I. J. Dike, A. B. Badawaire, COMPARATIVE STUDY OF SOME ESTIMATORS OF LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF OUTLIERS , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 6 No. 1 (2022): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 6 No. 1
- A. A. Garba, Mustapha Shehu, M. A. Adamu, A. O. Musa, T. Abdullahi, FABRICATION AND ELECTRICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF Cu-Cu2O PHOTO ELECTRO CHEMICAL SOLAR CELLS , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 7 No. 4 (2023): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 7 No. 4
- M. S. Abubakar, N. M. Nasidi, N. J. Shanono, M. D. Zakari, A. A. Sabo, A. Ibrahim, S. K. Shittu, EFFECT OF BIO-RESIDUES AS HEAVY METAL IMMOBILIZERS IN CUCUMBER AND IRRIGATION WATER AT JAKARA, KANO , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 6 No. 5 (2022): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 6 No. 5
- M. S. Abubakar, A. B. Yazid, A. A. Sabo, A. Ibrahim, A. U. Aliyu, M. Saleh, EFFECTS OF TEXTILE WASTEWATER PRE-TREATMENT ON LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS FOR SOLID-STATE ANAEROBIC DIGESTION , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 7 No. 1 (2023): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 7 No. 1
- A. S. Iliyasu, O. O. Ishaq, A. O. Abduhamid, A. Ibrahim, S. S. Abubakar, U. M. Musa, S. Ahmed, A. Usman, B. M. Abba, A MODIFIED DHILLON DISTRIBUTION: PROPERTIES AND APPLICATION , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 8 No. 5 (2024): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 8 No. 5
- ThankGod Joshua, Audu Isah, A. Ibrahim, Usman Abdullahi, Mohammed Lawan Danyaro, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION, ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND NAIVE BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES USING NIGERIA STOCK EXCHANGE DATA , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 7 No. 5 (2023): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 7 No. 5
- Kabiru Samaila Uthman, A. K. Idiris, A. Ibrahim, A. Tijjani, O. Rapheal, ASSESSMENT OF NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF PEOPLE LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS ON ART DRUG , FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES: Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): FUDMA Journal of Sciences - Vol. 9 No. 2