The GEO-SPATIAL ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL ON THE OCCURRENCE OF CHOLERA IN KANO STATE, NIGERIA
Temperature and rainfall variability as an important factor that could affect the occurrence of Cholera becomes one of the major concerns globally. This study assessed the influence of these factors on the occurrence of Cholera in Kano State, Nigeria. The researchers employed the used of Cholera surveillance data obtained from Kano State Ministry of Health, the mean monthly temperature, and total monthly rainfall data downloaded from the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia archive (2010 to 2019). The data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) in ArcMap 10.8 environment. Results showed that an increase in temperature by 1 unit positively influences the occurrence of Cholera by 19.69, 11.7 and 18.7 unit during hot/dry, warm/wet, and cold/dry season respectively. Similarly, an increase in rainfall by 1 unit brings about a rise in the outbreak of Cholera by 0.67 and 0.97 unit during hot/dry and warm/wet season respectively. In addition, highest influence of temperature and rainfall on the outbreak of Cholera during warm/wet season with R2 value of 0.25, and lowest during the cold/dry season with R2 value at 0.06. Northern part of the State experienced the strongest influence (R2 values of 0.2) while Southern part recorded the lowest influence with R2 values of 0.04 to 0.07. Variability in temperature and rainfall in Kano State were directly related with the outbreak of Cholera. Hence, the need for more environmental sanitation programs and public campaign as climate related mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Abdullahi, A.H. (2023). Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Epidemic Prone Diseases in Kano State, Nigeria. PhD Thesis submitted to the Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Physical Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria.
Abdussalam, A.F. (2014). Climate Influences on Infectious Diseases in Nigeria, A thesis submitted to the School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Science, College of Life and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
Adjei, K.O., Kenu, E., Bandoh, D.A., Addo, P.N.O., Noora, C.L., Nortey, P., and Afari, E.A. (2017). Epidemiological link of a major cholera, outbreak in Greater Accra region of Ghana, 2014, BMC Public Health, 17:801.
Asadgol, Z., Mohammadi, H., Kermani, M., Badirzadeh, A., and Gholami, M. (2019). The effect of climate change on cholera disease: The road ahead using artificial neural network. PLoS ONE, 14, 1–20.
Asante, F. A. and Amuakwa, M.F. (2014). Climate change and variability in Ghana: Stocktaking. Climate, 3:78e99.
Baker-Austin, C., Oliver, J.D., Alam, M., Ali, A., Waldor, M.K., Qadri, F., and Martinez-Urtaza, J. (2018). Vibrio spp. infections., Nature Reviews Disease Primers.4(8):1-19, downloaded on 14th February, 2021 from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication /326359267
Bentham, G., and Langford, I.H. (2001). Environmental temperatures and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales. International Journal of Biometeorology, 45(1): 22–26
Colwell, R.R. (1996). Global warming and infectious diseases. Science, 274: 2025–2031
Griffith, D.C.; Kelly-Hope, L.A.; Miller, M.A. (2006). Review of reported cholera outbreaks worldwide, 1995–2005. American Journal of Tropical Medicine Hyg., 75, 973–977.
Hassan, N.A., Hashim, J.H., Wan Puteh, S.E., Mahiyuddin, W.R. and Faisal, M.S. (2016). The Impacts of Climate Change on Cholera Disease in Malaysia, Seminar on Climate Change and Health: Exploring the Linkages.
Hasyim, H., Nursafngi, A., Haque4, U., Montag, D., David A. G., Dhimal, M., Ulrich Kuch, U.and Müller, R. (2018). Spatial modelling of malaria cases associated with environmental factors in South Sumatra, Indonesia; Malaria Journal, 17(87):2-15, https://doi.org/10.1186 /s12936-018-2230-8.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014). Summary for Policymakers, in Field, C., Barros, V. et al. (eds), Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kala, A. K., Tiwari C., Mikler, A. R. and Atkinson, S. F. (2017), A comparison of least squares regression and geographically weighted regression modeling of West Nile virusrisk based on environmental parameters. Peer Journal, 5: e3070; DOI 10.7717/peerj.3070.
Kaper, J.B., Morris, J.G. and Levine, M.M. (1995). Cholera.Clinical Microbiology Review, (1):48–86.
Lipp, E.K. and Rose, J.B. (1997). The role of seafood in food borne diseases in the United States of America. Revue Scientific et Technicale. Office Internationale des Epizootics, 16: 620–640
Mensah, F. A., Marbuah, G. and Mubanga, M. (2017). Climate variability and infectious diseases nexus: Evidence from Sweden, Infectious Disease Modeling, 2:203e217.
Mukhopadhyay, A.K., Deb, A.K., Chowdhury, G., Debnath, F., Samanta, P., Saha, R.N., and Dutta, S. (2019). Post-monsoon water logging-associated upsurge of cholera casesin and around Kolkata metropolis, Epidemiology and Infection 147(e167):1–8. Downloaded from https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268819000529.
Nabegu, A.B. (2014). Analysis of Vulnerability to Food Disaster in Kano State, Nigeria. Greener Journal of Physical Sciences, 4:22-29.
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) (2021). State of the Climate in Nigeria, downloaded on 6 March, 2021 from https://www.environewsnigeria.com/2021-nimet-predicts-normal -to-above-normal-rainfall-season/aa
Nishiura, H., Tsuzuki, S., Yuan, B., Yamaguchi, T. and Asa, Y. (2017). Transmission dynamics of cholera inYemen, 2017: a real time forecasting; Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 14(14):1-8. DOI 10.1186/s12976-017-0061-x.
Odjugo, P.A.O. (2010). Regional evidence of climate in Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, 3(6): 142-150.
Oger, P. and Sudre, B. (2013). Water, sanitation and hygiene and Cholera Epidemiology: An Integrated Evaluation in the Countries of the Lake Chad Basin in: S. Rebaudet, B. Sudre, B. Faucher, and R. Piarroux, Environmental Determinants of Cholera Outbreaks in Inland Africa: A Systematic Review of Main Transmission Foci and Propagation Routes, Journal of Infectious Diseases, 208(1): 46-54.
Rasam, A.R. A., Ghazali, R., Noor, A. M. M., Mohd, W. M. N. W., Hamid, J. R. A., Bazlan, M. J. and Ahmad, N. (2014). Spatial epidemiological techniques in cholera mapping and analysis towards a local scale predictive modeling, IOP Conference Series, Earth and Environmental Science, 18: 012-095.
Riede, J. O., Posada, R, Fink, A. H. and Kaspar, F. (2016). What’s on the 5th IPCC Report for West Africa? In: Yaro J., Hesselberg J. (eds) Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in Rural West Africa. Springer, Cham.
Tamunoberetonari, I, Uko, E.D. and Horsfall, O.I (2013). Correlation analysis of sewage Disposal Methods and Incidences Rates of Typhoid Fever and Cholera in Port Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria. Journal of Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences, 4(1): 16-23
Weather Atlas (2020). Monthly weather forecast and climate, Kano, Nigeria.Accessed from http://www.nga.com/en/n on 25th August, 2020.
Weber, T., Haensler, A., Rechid, D., Pfeifer, S., Eggert, B. and Jacob, D. (2018). Analyzing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world. Earth’s Future., 6:643–655. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000714.
Wu, X.X., Tian, H.Y., Zhou, S., Chen, L.F. and Xu, B. (2014). Impact of global change on transmission of human infectious diseases. Science China Earth.57, 189¾´ãéž¾˜M203.
Xu, M., Cao, C., Wang, D. and Kan, B. (2015). Identifying Environmental Risk Factors of Cholera in a Coastal Area with Geospatial Technologies, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12, 354-370; doi:10.3390/ ijerph120100354
Yue Y, Gong J, Wang D, Kan B, Li B, Ke C. (2014). Influence of climate factors on Vibrio cholerae dynamics in the Pearl River estuary, South China. World Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology; 30 (6):1797–808.
Zakari, N., Adamu, Y. M., Murtala, U., Muhammed, M. U., Sabiu, N. and Da’u, S. (2018). Trends and diffusion pattern of meningitis in Kano State, Nigeria using Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) and linear trend surface, Dutse Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences4(1):510 – 520
Copyright (c) 2023 FUDMA JOURNAL OF SCIENCES
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
FUDMA Journal of Sciences